Hello world, or at least a small subset of it. The past week has been a week of snow, which has been worse than rubbish. To be honest I would come up with a suitable adjective, but google couldn’t really help me (honest, try googling ‘worse than rubbish’, it’s well, worse than rubbish (although it did point out that rubbish is an interesting 'noun-like’ adjective, like genius.))
On a related note, googling (sp?, is it a word yet?) 'google’ is on the rise… which I find I can strongly appreciate considering how many times I’ve seen people do it and even myself when I get caught out by sneaky google toolbars.
Back to snow, here’s something I was going to blog about earlier in the week. I decided not to in the end as I decided it was silly, but following a chat with Hollie I realised I had overlooked some details so I will share what I had been thinking.
It was a snowy Monday and I was cycling along in my wellies, (“Cycling in wellies‽” I hear you cry!!!) This lead me to think about whether wearing wellies (nice alliteration) and cycling are (in my life) independent events. As this thought struck me it caused me to veer wildly across the road, narrowly missing a snake on a mountain bike who was considering the same thing. My immediate gut reaction to this was oooh erm, wow, let me…Nah who am I kidding, the system 1 part of my brain kicked in and screamed “They’re independent!.” However then system 2 strolled in once it realised system 1 had had (oh dear…had had, hate these moments, feels kind of awkward) its moment in the sun and considered the problem. My next step was to stick some numbers in, I estimated my welly wearing tenancies to be about 10 days out of the past year, so 10/365, and I cycled most days, so I estimated at around 330 out of 365 and I knew I had cycled in wellies just the once, today (this should have been my first clue that I was going about this the long way.) Now, if P(w) the probability that I wore wellies on any given day (I assume if I wear them I wear them all day outside which seemed fair) and P© the probability that I cycle on any given day are independent then P(c intersection w) = P(w)P© that is to say the probability of both things happening at the same time is equal to product of the probabilities of the events happening regardless of the other.
Even while cycling over a precarious hump back bridge in the snow with track tires I could tell that that the product of 10/365 and 330/365 was nowhere near 1/365 so I decided I thought they where in fact dependent events. Now, with the power of being stationary (relative to the earth) and being sat down I can see that if they were independent, then I should have cycled with wellies on roughly 9 days in the past year.
~hmm, end of my music, time for part 2.~
It was somewhere towards the end of the previously mentioned, yet quite short bridge that I realised just how long winded this had been and how daft it was that this thought had taken at least 600m of my journey so far (not often you get to measure a thought in metres, how fun) Of course they’re dependent for me, the only reason I wear wellies, generally is because either its snowing, torrential rain, or I’m going somewhere very muddy and its obvious to see all of these conditions are going to massively decrease the chance of me cycling.. As a famous meercat once said, “Simples."
For the record, the thing that I realised while talking to Hollie was that I did not at the time consider any situation that would cause me to wear wellies that wasn’t snow, not that it changes the outcome.
Right so after that ordeal I’m going to go back and edit in anything else I want to waffle on about above this bit, as I guess the maths will probably cause people to stop reading, or else start googling famous meercats.